Commodity online exchange Kyiv Mercantile Exchange – KME: the results of the business week (January 14 – 20) in the markets of mineral fertilisers of Ukraine and the world.
Uncertainty in the global fertilizer market has a direct impact on the quotations of the Baltic-Black Sea region. Market participants have not made any sharp moves – as it was expected. It is already clear that there will not be any radical increase in price in the world.
Overview of news in the world fertiliser market. Main events of the week:
- “Uralhim” was sold urea for about 270 USD / T, FOB.
- The price of CAS on the world market decreases.
- Prices for the phosphate fertilisers are decreasing.
- Low prices and low activity on the ammonia market./li>
The supply of urea from the Algerian plant AOA in the first half of February will be made at a price of at least 305 USD / T, FOB. Such price level corresponds to the upper limit of quotes last week and slightly higher than it was in Egypt.
Prilurovanny urea was sold by Uralhim for about 270 USD / T, FOB. Separately, ETG announced the purchase of a similar volume at a price of 268 USD / T in the production group SDS for shipment to Africa at the end of January. “Transvsk” offers granulated urea for 280 USD / T, FOB.
The purchase price of urea from Arab suppliers can start at 290 USD / T, FOB. In Iran, urea, according to the recent reports, costs 215-220 USD / T, FOB. The range of countries interested in the goods from this country – Turkey, Afghanistan, Iraq, Myanmar, other countries of Asia.
CAS and ammonia prices in Europe continue to decrease. In the Baltic countries, the price for the big batches starts at 185 USD / T, FOB. The average bid for small lots for the European market is 220-230 USD / T, FCA / FOB. Russian manufacturers offer CAS from the Black Sea, a price of 7-10 USD / t higher, volumes of supply are significant, demand reduction is noticeable in the US and the Western Hemisphere.
Phosphate fertilizers are getting cheaper, which even leads to the strike of workers in the North of Africa. Taking into account the high prices for phosphorus, even cheap ammonia cannot improve the positions of producers. It can be expected that diammonium phosphate and monoammonium phosphate will last for a price range of 405-415 USD / T, FOB.
The cost of ammonia in the South due to the lack of spot contracts remains the subject of the theoretical discussions. A few weeks ago netback would provide 260 USD / T, FOB, with normal logistics. And with delays – minus 20-25 dollars. Now more often appreciated in wide limits – 265-280 USD / T, FOB.
Quotations of the Baltic are estimated at $ 280-281 USD / T, FOB.
Ammonia from North Africa at the spot is unlikely to be expected, taking into the account the Sorfert repairs. The plant in Libya does not work. Four thousand tons batch of ammonia was sold to India at a price of 325 USD / T, CFR. The sale took place under the FACT Tender, January 10.
Overview of the news in the Ukrainian fertiliser market. Main events of the week:
- A new “giver” OPP plans to start production on February 1.
- Dniproazot actively sells urea, and other proposals have appeared.
- Imports of the fertilisers can begin to quote and limit.
Agroholdings began to buy ammoniac saltpetre of Ukrainian production. Despite the fact that sales are not massive yet, demand is outlined. In addition, Turkish and Georgian saltpetre are actively sold in southern Ukraine.
Importers on January 18 again felt the problems with the customs clearance, at the moment the imports are cleared, but the process is delayed by the customs under any pretext. Importers continue to complain, ships arriving.
Last week two ships with goods from Georgia arrived. Several companies bought Bulgarian saltpetre and the information about Romanian saltpetre appeared (we believe that delivery is unlikely).
Bulgarian saltpetre is being delivered immediately by 4 importers, the price for it is low – 245-249 USD / T, DAF / CFR. In February, the pace of imports will decrease, traders themselves carried the goods “in a blind place”, since February will try to do it under the order. At present, there are risks of untimely delivery and lower prices for Ukrainian saltpetre. In regard to that, the demand for NPK increases sharply.
Nitroammophos is the most priority, next is diammophos, 13:19:19, 8:20:30 and 8:19:29. Starting NPs 9:30 and 12:24 are also very interesting.
Sumykhimprom is still not supplied with sulphur, DZMD-sulfuric acid. Their access to the NPK market is delayed, and the importers of the Gomel NPK and NP fertilisers can use it first.
CAS will remain cheap until the end of frosts and the arrival of “warm” demand, urea just will not be able to rise in price due to its abundance.
Grodno urea is sold in Ukraine at prices below 11 300 UAH / t, invasion, FCA.
It is important to understand that the IPO with the price of urea 11 300 UAH / t can completely reorient the traders with the compositions from saltpetre to urea, as saltpetre even for 10 000 UAH / t is more expensive than the active substance.
Assuming that the agrarian will nevertheless pay attention to saltpetre for the active substance, then the priorities fall immediately on urea and CAS. But the most interesting is ammonia water. Ammonia water at a price of 3 500-3 600 UAH / t with delivery, will be 76% more interesting than of saltpetre.
Georgian saltpeter is sold for 10 000-10 100 UAH / t, FCA – port. The price for Turkish saltpetre is 10 100-10 300 UAH / t, FCA. Earlier it was possible to buy it for 9 800-10 000 UAH / t, FCA. The Bulgarian product was sold for 10 300-10 400 UAH / t, FCA. The Ukrainian goods are estimated at 11 300 UAH / t, SRT, in the regions the goods are sold by traders for 11 500-11 600 UAH / t. The highest price for nitrate is in the west and in the centre of Ukraine.
Urea is offered by Dniproazot for 11 000 UAH / t, the plant has over 25 thousand tons of product in stock, 20 thousand tons of January goods bought by a large buyer, another 20 thousand tons were exported by Dniproazot. For February production is scheduled of at least 60 thousand tons. If OPP is launched, which is also oriented to the domestic market, the demand for urea will overlap.
The production of KAS-32/28 increased to 17 thousand tons per month. Imported CAS goes from Belarus, also a batch is shipped from Egypt and sold for 8,600 UAH / t, FCA-port. The price for KAS-32 from traders is 9 500-9 600 UAH / t, SRT, Belarusian CAS-30 is offered for 9 200 UAH / t, CPT, and Ukrainian KAS-28 was sold for 8 600-8 800 UAH / t, CPT.
Ammonium sulfate raised to 7 400-7 600 UAH / t, CPT, crystal and 8 100-8 600 UAH / t, granule. The reason for rising prices is the lack of free volumes, there are no suppliers on February for free goods.
Nitroammphos from “Akron” was sold for 340 -345 USD / T, DAF. New price for February at 360 USD / t has not yet been consolidated, Mining Fertilizers (Rososh) offered goods for 345-350 USD / T, DAF. Price 345 USD/ t at current demand and prices for diammophos may take place. The NPK bonus 16:16:16 for jetties should not exceed 10-15%, the higher price on the nitroammophos will make even the technological map of the field change. Belarusian NPK 16:16:16 was offered for 365 USD / T, DAF.
Diammophos for NPK is the top product for March-April. At a price of 15300-15500 UAH / t, it is more profitable than other alternatives, but the volume of imports is very limited.
NPK 8:19:29 on average is sold for 13,600 UAH /t FCA, but with delivery, the goods are already offered for 14 000 UAH / t. For Western Ukraine, it is quite interesting fertilizer even for the spring.
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