Commodity online exchange Kyiv Mercantile Exchange – KME: the results of the last week of July 2019 in the markets of mineral fertilisers in Ukraine and the world.
News overview in the world fertiliser market. Main events of the week:
- Ammonia prices for August will remain unchanged
- The decrease in the price of urea is already being felt
- Due to lack of moisture, India is reducing demand for nitrogen and phosphorus fertilisers
Prices for ammonia in the US will remain unchanged, “Yara” and “Mosaic” agreed to leave the price at 215 USD/t, FOB-Tampa for August 2019.
At the same time, the demand for nitrogen fertilisers has declined significantly. Phosphate fertilisers remain less desirable in the trader’s basket, so more attention will be paid to potash and complex fertilisers. Particularly active, the market began to develop after the millionth market in Ukraine fenced off from Russian complex fertilisers and many requests went to NPK producers in the Mediterranean.
The accumulation of urea for sale in India has stopped. Traders who have not bought the required volumes are not in a hurry to make new purchases, as there are a few markets.
China has begun to reduce its price. Price pressure is also felt in Latin America, where last week’s demand was only on the west coast, where the Russian product was actively offered. This situation has led to a reduction in prices in the Baltic States by 10 USD/t. Traders’ requests for new volumes are small and start at 255 USD/t, FOB. In a week the price will be even lower.
In ports of the Black Sea, urea is being asked for 255 – 260 USD/t, FOB, the proposals are from OPZ and DniproAzot. In August, the whole volume, which is about 120 thousand tons of goods, was not sold.
In India and the Asian markets, weak monsoon winds did not bring even half of the moisture needed for normal agricultural production. Therefore, the Indians will buy less nitrogen and phosphorus fertilizers. This news begins to reduce prices for September by 3 – 5 USD/t. At the same time, potassium fertilizers are rising in price, manufacturers are pedalling growth by 15 – 20 USD/t in all major markets, in turn – China.
News overview in the Ukrainian fertiliser market. Main events of the week:
- In Ukraine, potassium fertilisers are also more expensive, we have plus 10 USD/t in September
- DZMD has started, since August 2 OPZ has been operating
- The complex market in Ukraine has been substantially fuelled by new sources of commodity
Potash fertilisers have already become more expensive. So far, in the price lists, potassium chloride has risen in price by 120 – 150 UAH/t, but in import, the goods are delivered already by 10 USD/t more expensive. There is not enough potassium, and demand is active. All volumes for September have already been written down, as NPK from Belarus went up by 65 USD/t It is now profitable to make mixes. By the way, mixes from Belarus are on the way. In September, there will be real resonance – mixes will become popular, whereas 10 years ago they were ousted by NPK.
Phosphorus and NPK are imported from Bulgaria, Turkey, Romania, Poland, Belarus and Lithuania. But the volume of imports is not enough, even all together these sources are not able to close 50-60 thousand tons of delivery volumes. Ukrainian producers are capable of delivering 50-55 thousand tonnes of NPK and phosphorus in August, with market demand of 200 thousand tonnes. However, demand is so relaxed that even such volumes are difficult for traders to sell. This is partly due to NPK’s rise in price. Agrarians did not stock up on the necessary volumes in advance, and now they are waiting for cheap imports and plan to buy a week before introducing fertilisers.
The Dnipro Mineral Fertilizer Plant started production on July 26, the plant plans to produce of NP 10:32 during the first two weeks, later at the same capacity NPK 16:16:16. All the goods are sold by the Osthem structures because they are the giver, the plant is the processor of raw materials. Therefore, prices for finished products are not set by the plant. The price is unknown at this time. Since August 2 came to the capacity of the OPZ.
Turkey and Bulgaria will be new NPK suppliers to Ukraine in August, but the third ship with Moroccan ammophos 11:52 imported by two traders arrives on August 4. Due to this, the price of ammophos is still maintained at the level of 16200-16500 UAH/t, CPT. But in September the price will reach UAH 17,000/t, the increase will occur by 3,500 thousand UAH from the price of spring 2019.
The rest of the Russian product is sold for 19000 UAH/t, CPT. Sulfoammophos 20:20 was extremely popular this year. It was imported from Bulgaria and Turkey. The season is about to end in early September and will be replaced by high-potassium NPK. The hit of the season will be NPK 8:19:29, it will be produced by Gomel Chemical Plant and Sumykhimprom.
Note that the review is made on the basis of data from the tenders and applications for the purchase and sale of the commodity online exchange KME and data analytical group Info Industry.
For reference: Kyiv Mercantile Exchange – the newest Ukrainian online exchange. Realises the world standards of stock trading in the Ukrainian markets of agricultural, chemical and petroleum products. As of end of May 2019, the total turnover of trades in Kyiv Mercantile Exchange exceeded UAH 6,3 billion