Commodity online exchange Kiev Mercantile Exchange – KME: the results of the fourth week of April 2019 in the markets for mineral fertilizers in Ukraine and the world
News overview in the world fertilizer market. Main events of the week:
- The market is already experiencing a lack of urea supply
- Iran will deliver 200 thousand tons of urea to Brazil
- Belarusskaliy sold 25 thousand tons of potassium to Vietnam
At a price of about 300 USD/t Belaruskaliy sold 25 thousand tons of potassium to Vietnam at a time when demand in the country is rather low. It should be noted that in Southeast Asia in general, potassium chloride is low in demand. Prices in China are 290 USD/t, SFR. In Europe, potassium granulated is offered livelier than purchased. Price on FOB-Baltika terms – 257-277 USD/t, FOB.
European prices for fertilizer NPK have not changed, but the demand leaves much to be desired because the market is not as active as was expected. In the Baltic ports, prices remain at the level of 310-320 USD/t, FOB.
Urea from Iran is sold for 190 USD/t, FOB. A party of 48 thousand tons of product has already been sold and taken to Brazil. Another 150 thousand tons will be shipped in April-May.
This volume will take place of more expensive Russian goods in the Latin American market. At present, Brazil was the main market for urea. Even under these conditions, individual markets experience shortages of goods and strong demand. India will come out with the second tender by the end of April. Meanwhile, China is not going to increase exports. In Asia, demand is stable, the market will be balanced after the tender in India.
News overview in the Ukrainian fertilizer market. Main events of the week:
- In Ukraine, after the election, demand for all types of fertilizers has fallen
- The Iran-Omani urea has not been cleared
- Producers of nitrogen do not plan to reduce production
Immediately after the election the demand for all types of fertilizers has fallen, the worst nitrogen wagon batches are sold. Agrarians in warehouses buy urea and KAS.
Traders associate a decline in activity with the warming and low solvency of small farmers who bought fertilizers less than all.
Saltpeter is already offered for 7800-8000 UAH/t in ports, and manufacturers offer urea for 10000 UAH/t at factories, in bulk. For nitrogen fertilizers season is over. Although in the south not less than 30,000 tons of urea and 40,000 tons of saltpeter remains in traders.
Manufacturers of saltpeter managed to sell a more expensive product, and in May, offers have not yet been set forth. We are waiting for a new price for saltpeter next week.
Iranian or Omani urea has never been cleared, it’s still unknown how this import will end. At present, import prices should have amounted 9700-9800 UAH/t in the port. Such a price will soon be relevant to the factories in the center of Ukraine.
The OPP began selling the goods, which for a long time remained in the warehouses as arrested. Finally, the courts and arrests were over, the goods found their buyer at 10300 UAH/ton, the plant. The quality, according to traders, did not suffer.
For most market participants, the main fertilizer product for April-May traditionally is NPK, first of all, it is a nitroammophos. Now its price remains high, this is the main reason for very low sales activity. Waves of nitroammophos sales took place in March. In April, just after the election, there is a calm.
At the Forum in Turkey, market participants and leading analysts in Ukraine will try to find out the reasons for the low activity of farmers. It can be argued beforehand that not only the price is the basis for concern. Obviously, we must assume what exactly and in what amount farmers are sowing. We try to make the first analysis after sowing.
The price of nitroammophos has already reached 12,000 – 12,100 UAH/t, CPT. Further reduction is impossible, how will agrarians behave? Are there any alternatives? Of course, there are. And this is primarily diammophos and ruler brands of 13:19:19, 13:13:20 and others.
Note that the review is made on the basis of data from the tenders and applications for the purchase and sale of the commodity online exchange KME and data analytical group Info Industry.
For reference: Kyiv Mercantile Exchange – the newest Ukrainian online exchange. Realises the world standards of stock trading in the Ukrainian markets of agricultural, chemical and petroleum products. As of March 2019, the total turnover of trades in Kyiv Mercantile Exchange exceeded UAH 4.5 billion.