NPK prices have begun to decline, activity in purchasing of phosphorus fertilizers gradually declines

Our news, Overview of the market for mineral fertilizers

Commodity online exchange Kyiv Mercantile Exchange – KME: the results of the third week of August 2019 in the markets of mineral fertilisers in Ukraine and the world.

News overview in the world fertiliser market. Main events of the week:
  • Nitrogen prices are crumbling in the Baltic
  • The saltpetre is not for sale, the quotations are reduced
  • NPK went down in price, while ammophos is not sold very actively

There are no clear price targets in the world urea market and the pace of trade is declining.

There was no information on the sale price in the Black Sea. But the quotation of Brazil, where EuroHim organizes the transportation of 26 thousand tons of granulated urea, would provide a netback close to 245 USD/t, FOB. So, sold urea can cost even less than 235 USD. In fact, this is where traders’ requests for new lots begin in September.

Russian factories are trying to keep urea prices above 250 USD/t, but they have no spot sales.

Buyers of ammonium saltpetre in the Baltic want to see the price of 180-185 USD/t, FOB, while manufacturers are pushing for prices closer to 190 USD. Experts estimate the price level from 175 USD/ t. In any case, nothing is known about the spot sales price.

After several weeks of stability, prices of DAP in India and China slid down, while in other regions remained unchanged. Indian importers were inactive. It became known only about the purchase of DAP and NPK 12:32:16 lots of 30 thousand tons each. The market is not active.

At the same time, the prices of Russian nitroammophos decreased by 10 USD/t, to 305 USD/t, FOB.

News overview in the Ukrainian fertiliser market. Main events of the week:
  • The Groysman’s government has given a gift to farmers in the form of an investigation into imports of fertilizers from third countries
  • Cheapening of corn has sharply reduced the activity of medium and large NPK buyers.
  • NPK prices started to decline, phosphorus fertilizer sales activity is gradually declining.

In Ukraine, corn price has fallen sharply. Wheat and sunflower also become cheaper. Soybeans are the least expensive. The reason for the fall in prices is the game of big players-traders in the world market, which was supported by optimistic harvest forecasts of the USDA.

The demand for phosphorus fertilizers remains relevant. Market sales monitoring confirms better demand for sulfoammophos and ammophos than NPK. Dual superphosphate and superphosphate are sold much worse, Gomel plant plans to exclude superphosphate from deliveries to Ukraine in September. Sales of sulfoammophos begin to decline.

The Groysman’s government held the last Cabinet of the Ministries meeting, and on the same day a meeting of the Interagency Commission on Foreign Trade was held, where it was decided to open an investigation procedure against imports from third countries.

The investigation itself is conducted within 270 days and within 30 days statements of interested persons are collected. At the same time, intensive sampling of fertilizers began at the customs offices of Mykolayiv, Chernomorsk and Kherson, which delays customs clearance for two weeks.

Production of saltpetre in July was a record for this year, but in August no fewer records are expected. In July, agrarians were shipped about 160,000 tonnes of saltpetre, while during 20 days of August – 86,000 tonnes. In July, saltpetre was “rising” from warehouses.

Traders were actively buying urea. Currently, the price of the product has dropped to 8100 UAH/t, CPT. Producers have a surplus of production, according to the experts of “Info Industry” the nitrogen market is already in surplus, but the NPK market is still not covered.

Prices for nitroammophos decreased to 13500 UAH/t, CPT. It is 500 UAH/t lower than at the beginning of August. The adjustment was due to the weak demand of farmers.

Note that the review is made on the basis of data from the tenders and applications for the purchase and sale of the commodity online exchange KME and data analytical group Info Industry.

For reference: Kyiv Mercantile Exchange – the newest Ukrainian online exchange. Realises the world standards of stock trading in the Ukrainian markets of agricultural, chemical and petroleum products. As of end of June 2019, the total turnover of trades in Kyiv Mercantile Exchange exceeded UAH 8,5 billion.

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